Probabilistic Modeling Parameters

• Poisson distribution of occurrences

  • probabilities constant and random over time
  • individual occurrences have no prior memory

• Storm occurrence rates derived on historical data

• Maximum considered storm wind speed based on meteorological and climatic fundamentals

• Random storm tracking

• Wind velocity attenuation profile required

• Inland storm decay as applicable

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For long return periods and high speed events such as hurricanes in the United States, there is almost always a lack of adequate statistical representation.

For this reason in the Hawaii study, a probabilistic hurricane hazard analysis using a data base from 1949 through the early nineties was developed to obtain a probabilistic hazard relationship for design wind speeds. The methodology for this investigation (Peterka, 1993) included the following parameters: historic tropical storm occurrence rates in Hawaii's vicinity, projected maximum theoretical wind speeds in future central Pacific hurricanes, random storm tracking, and profiles of wind velocity attenuation as a function of distance from the storm center